UAE Coffee Prices Set to Rise as Global Bean Costs Surge
<p>Coffee lovers across the United Arab Emirates may need to brace themselves for another round of price increases, as global coffee markets remain under intense strain. The cost of Arabica beans — the preferred choice for most specialty cafés in the UAE — continues to hover near multi-decade highs, driven by supply shortages, climate disruptions, and shifting trade policies.</p><p>Despite efforts by major international roasters to absorb rising costs and recent tariff adjustments in the United States, industry leaders warn that there is little immediate relief in sight. For consumers, the impact is already visible in café menus, supermarket shelves, and specialty coffee outlets, just as the UAE’s coffee culture is expanding at an unprecedented pace.</p><h4><strong>Booming Coffee Culture Meets Global Pressure</strong></h4><p>The UAE is one of the fastest-growing coffee markets globally. With more than 11,000 café brands operating across the country, coffee consumption has evolved from a daily habit into a defining lifestyle choice. The local coffee market, currently valued at over $3.2 billion (Dh12 billion), is projected to reach $4.5 billion (Dh16.5 billion) by 2029. Across the wider Gulf and Middle East region, the industry could exceed $22 billion within the next decade.</p><p>However, this rapid growth comes at a fragile moment for global supply. Rising costs of green coffee beans, increased shipping charges, and tighter inventories are converging to create sustained upward pressure on prices. Arabica beans — which dominate the UAE’s specialty coffee scene — have been hit particularly hard.</p><h4><strong>Why Arabica Prices Are Staying High</strong></h4><p>The current surge in Arabica prices can be traced to several overlapping factors. Poor harvests in major producing nations such as Brazil and Colombia have reduced global output, while erratic weather patterns linked to climate change continue to disrupt planting cycles. Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, has faced droughts and frost in recent years, sharply limiting supply.</p><p>On top of this, trade policies have added further volatility. US tariffs on Brazilian coffee temporarily pushed prices higher, and although tariff exemptions were later expanded, wholesale prices have yet to show meaningful declines. Analysts expect unroasted bean prices to stabilise only in the second half of 2026 — and even then, at levels well above historical averages.</p><p>For a country like the UAE, which imports nearly all its coffee, these global shocks translate directly into higher domestic costs.</p><h4><strong>Warnings from Global Coffee Giants</strong></h4><p>Major international players are already acknowledging that elevated prices may be here to stay. Illycaffè, which operates extensively in the UAE through cafés and retail distribution, has confirmed plans for further price increases. Chief Executive Cristina Scocchia has stated openly that there is a limit to how much companies can absorb when green coffee prices remain “unhealthily high.”</p><p>Similar warnings have come from the Lavazza Group, whose chairman Giuseppe Lavazza recently said the global coffee supply chain is “dramatically under pressure.” He pointed to extreme weather conditions and new regulatory requirements, including the European Union’s deforestation rules, as long-term challenges for producers.</p><p>Even global giants such as Starbucks are feeling the pinch. CEO Brian Niccol disclosed that bean costs jumped by about 30 per cent during one period this year. While the company is trying to limit price increases, it has not ruled out targeted hikes. Meanwhile, Nestlé, owner of Nescafé and Nespresso, has also confirmed raising prices to offset rising raw material costs.</p><h4><strong>UAE’s Unique Exposure</strong></h4><p>Dubai’s status as a global re-export hub further amplifies the impact. Coffee re-exports from the emirate have surpassed Dh3.5 billion, cementing its role as a key link in international supply chains. While this has strengthened Dubai’s position in global trade, it also exposes local roasters and cafés to sudden international price swings.</p><p>Specialty cafés, which rely heavily on premium Arabica beans, are among the most vulnerable. Industry operators report wholesale cost increases of 10–20 per cent already, driven by bean shortages, freight charges, and higher operational expenses. Many cafés initially absorbed these costs to protect customer loyalty, but prolonged pressure is making further price adjustments increasingly likely.</p><h4><strong>Demand Remains Resilient</strong></h4><p>Despite rising prices, demand in the UAE shows little sign of slowing. Consumers continue to seek out high-quality coffee, and foot traffic at cafés remains strong. Brands operating across hotels, restaurants, and malls report stable volumes, supported by the UAE’s young, globally connected population and strong tourism inflows.</p><p>This willingness to pay for quality has insulated the market so far, but analysts warn that consumers may soon face tougher choices if prices continue climbing. From mid-range cafés to premium specialty outlets, menu revisions are becoming difficult to avoid.</p><h4><strong>A New Normal for Coffee Prices?</strong></h4><p>Industry experts describe 2025 as an unprecedented period for the global coffee economy, with farmers, exporters, roasters, and consumers all under pressure simultaneously. Climate risks, geopolitical trade tensions, and regulatory changes are expected to keep markets tight well into 2026.</p><p>For UAE residents, the takeaway is straightforward: coffee is becoming more expensive to grow, ship, roast, and serve. While the nation’s café culture remains vibrant and expanding, the cost of sustaining that growth is rising fast.</p><p>Unless global harvests rebound sharply — something few executives currently expect — higher coffee prices in the UAE may no longer be a temporary spike, but a lasting feature of the market.</p>